Episode 75: Scenarios
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Looking Outside is for curious people looking for a fresh take on familiar topics, in business and beyond.
Arguably, the most important thing we need to do when thinking about the future, is to hold our strong opinions weakly. In the world of business strategy, the process of mapping what may lie ahead is usually tempted by a perfected, tried-and-true, method. So what happens when the forecast is wrong? On this episode of Looking Outside we are exploring the process and purpose of scenario planning, with world leading forecaster, professor and futurist, Paul Saffo. Having helped organizations, governments and future leaders build skills in forecasting for the future for decades, Paul knows better than most how predictions of the future can fail when certainty is the desired outcome. Equally he’s seen how people can become entranced with a specific method and obsessed with the accuracy of their predictions. He says instead, when thinking about the future, we should intentionally second guess assumptions, especially, those of so-called subject matter experts. Sometimes, it comes down simply to having a good compass and learning to read the stars.
To look outside, Paul walks his dog. Sometimes that’s all it takes!
Paul Saffo is a Silicon Valley-based forecaster who studies the dynamics of large-scale, long-term technological change. He teaches foresight at Stanford, where he is an Adjunct Professor in the School of Engineering and advises corporate, NGO and governmental clients worldwide. Paul is also a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University.
Learn more about Paul Saffo, futurist with a past
Check out more of Paul's work with the Long Now Foundation, Singularity University, The Atlantic Council and the Millennium Project
Connect with host, Jo Lepore on LinkedIn & X & jolepore.com
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