What happens when our forecasts are wrong? On this episode of Looking Outside we are exploring the process and purpose of scenario planning, with world leading forecaster, professor and futurist, Paul Saffo. Having helped organizations, governments and future leaders build skills in forecasting for the future for decades, Paul knows better than most how predictions of the future can fail when certainty is the desired outcome. Equally he’s seen how people can become entranced with a specific method and obsessed with the accuracy of their predictions. He says instead, when thinking about the future, we should intentionally second guess assumptions, especially, those of so-called subject matter experts. Sometimes, it comes down simply to having a good compass and learning to read the stars.